A Forgotten Episode of Human History

Public memory is proverbially short. Almost none of my friends know much about the Spanish Flu, which ravaged mankind a hundred years ago. The few, who had heard about it, thought that it was confined to Europe. I first learnt about it when I was studying the demographics of India for some other subject. Given below is a table of the population of   India (undivided, until 1941 and Bharat, after that)) during the last century. You will not fail to observe that in 1921, the population was less than what it was in 1911. During the rest of the century, the decadal growth was, persistently on the incline. The main cause for this decline was a pandemic which is known as “Spanish Flu 1918-20”

Source: Census of India

The Spanish Flu

At the time when this epidemic struck the world, the First World War was at its peak. We Indians were fighting on two fronts: assisting our British masters in Europe, and fighting for our freedom back home. With events like the Jalianwala Bagh massacre of 1919, the flu was not talked about, even though millions of Indians were afflicted by this disease and a very large number of people died. Newspapers were the only source of information, and the press was controlled by the British rulers.

Fatalities Caused by the Spanish Flu

The Spanish flu (also known as the 1918 flu pandemic) was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic. Lasting from January 1918 to December 1920, it infected 500 million people – about a quarter of the world’s population at the time. The death toll is estimated to have been anywhere from 17 million to 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million, making it one of the deadliest pandemics in human history.

To maintain morale, World War I censors minimized early reports of illness and mortality in Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and the United States. Newspapers were free to report the epidemic’s effects in neutral Spain, such as the grave illness of King Alfonso XIII, and these stories created a false impression of Spain as especially hard hit. This gave rise to the name Spanish flu. Historical and epidemiological data are inadequate to identify with certainty the pandemic’s geographic origin, with varying views as to its location. The fatalities of different countries are shown in the graph below.

A Salient Feature of the Spanish Flu

A great deal of research has been done on the onset and progress of this highly infectious illness. It struck in three waves over a period of well over two years. The time line and gravity are shown in the graph given below:

Most epidemics strike the children and the elders more than young persons. But this one killed more men in their youth. This could be due to the fact that during the epidemic younger men had been conscripted during the war. This is evident from the following graph:

Spain was NOT the Epicentre of this Flu

Contrary to the popular belief the pandemic of 1918 – 20 did not originate in Spain.  It is now generally agreed that the disease which was later identified as the H1N1 virus began in the trenches of World War I. The soldiers carried it to their countries. Media in France, the United Kingdom, Germany, the United States and elsewhere played down the impact on their own country in a bid to keep up morale. Newspapers were either directly controlled by national governments or keen to self-censor in the interest of patriotism at a time of war. However, Spain remained neutral during the conflict and its papers freely reported the outbreak. They all happily reported on events in Spain – leading many to incorrectly presume that the Iberian Peninsula was the epicenter.

Life during the Flu, in pictures

Some pictures that tell the tale of the period are given below:

This is a picture of a sign on a bus in the USA

Masks were made compulsory. Please note that in India, Jains have been wearing them since times immemorial

The victims were buried in ‘Mass Graves’ with no funeral.

End of the Spanish Flu

I spent a great deal of time trying to research how the Spanish flu was finally overpowered by our ancestors. There is no clear answer in the published literature. It appears that epidemics of this category end due to one or a combination of the following reasons:

• People develop immunity to the virus, and they learn how to deal with the ailment.

• Public health department develops techniques to fight with the virus.

• The doctors discover new medicines or forms of treatment to cure the victims

• The vulnerable members of the society die and the virus goes with them

The Corona Pandemic

A great deal has been said and written on the current Corona pandemic. Efforts have also been made to predict the number of people likely to be afflicted with this new virus. It is widely acknowledged that medical science has not yet discovered a vaccine or effective medicine to cure this dreaded international epidemic. As far as I can see it is early yet to make any credible forecast. However, it is clear that the magnitude of the current natural calamity is frightening. A study of the Spanish flu seems to suggest that even if we are unable to contain the spread of the COVID 19 virus there is a finite possibility that it may recur in the form of subsequent waves. During the 100 years science and technology have made giant strides and there is no doubt that a solution will emerge. Life will go on and mankind will bounce back with greater and renewed aplomb.

As on the 15^th Aprils, the graphs indicate that the curves have ‘flattened’ a bit. However, it is early yet to declare that the worst is behind us.

Life after Corona

There is ample evidence to suggest that the world will not be the same when the war against the present pandemic ends. At no time in the recorded history of mankind has a lockdown of the present kind been imposed. Life has virtually come to a standstill almost as if someone has pulled the plug. And for the first time, the developed countries in Europe and America are affected more than the economically backward nations. Even if we are able to check the spread of this disease it is unlikely that international travel will resume and people will begin globetrotting as before. Millions of people will have to alter their style of life. I do not know how many people will venture to go on a cruise after the experience of the famous Diamond Princess Cruise ship.

Power has a Shelf life!

A famous author observed that power and influence have a shelf life. The British Empire ruled over most of the Earth and then the Americans made us to believe that there is no world beyond the USA. Economists judge countries by their GDP which is based on the quantum of aircraft, cars, and other industrial products owned by the citizens. The so-called developed countries consume enormous quantities of fuel and they have invested fabulous amounts of money to acquire lethal weapons and equipment to subdue weaker nations. The coronavirus has demonstrated a prowess to teach a lesson to those who need it the most.

One thing is certain. You can be living in the best house, own a top of the line limousine, fly in private jets…but if COVID 19 decides to attack you, you cannot escape. It can also face the most powerful atom bomb created by man.

They say, “With money, you can purchase medicines; but you can’t buy health”

The Road Ahead

I am neither a doctor nor an astrologer. But I have the gumption to make a few predictions:

• It is early yet to predict how many people will suffer illness or death as a result of the current pandemic. But I am sanguine that the figures will not be as scary as the Spanish Flu.

• Health care will receive more funds. Nations may decide to cut down on their defence budgets.

• Europe and the North America are likely to end up with a larger number of fatalities.

• A second, or even a third wave, cannot be ruled out.

• In a few months’ time, people will get used to this pandemic. Since an overwhelming majority of patients survive this disease, the scare will diminish. And no stigma will be attached to people who are tested positive in the ‘Corona test’

• People will avoid crowded places. Travel will be restricted. Many people will work from home. Many educational institutions will switch to ‘online’ classes. Many more items of daily needs will be purchased ‘online’.

• Travel and tourism will reduce. The cruise industry may face extinction. And those who are engaged in ‘the oldest profession’ may have to look for an alternative occupation!

• They say, “To fight darkness do not draw your sword, light a candle”. And we say, “To defeat corona virus, do not quarrel with the rules and lead kindly light”

Tailpiece : Are we victims of a ‘Biological War’ ???